TRIUMPH-2 and TRIUMPH-3 report positive topline results

In TRIUMPH-2, adults with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight lost an average of 20.8% of body weight on the 12 mg dose at 80 weeks under the efficacy estimand, against 4.0% on placebo, from a mean baseline weight of 106.4 kg. A1C fell by 1.5% on that arm from a baseline of 7.7%, against 0.2% on placebo.

In TRIUMPH-3, adults with severe obesity and established cardiovascular disease lost an average of 22.6% on the 12 mg dose at 80 weeks, against 3.2% on placebo.

The cardiovascular numbers in TRIUMPH-3 deserve care, because they are the part most likely to be reported as something they are not. Lilly stated that major adverse cardiovascular events occurred less frequently than anticipated in both arms. For the five-component composite endpoint, there were 44 events on retatrutide against 52 on placebo — a hazard ratio of 0.82, with a 95% confidence interval running from 0.55 to 1.22. For the three-component composite, 27 against 23, a hazard ratio of 1.12 with an interval from 0.64 to 1.96. Both intervals cross 1.0. This trial does not demonstrate a cardiovascular benefit, and it was not designed to: the dedicated outcomes trial, TRIUMPH-Outcomes, is not expected to complete until 2029.

Discontinuation because of adverse events was higher on retatrutide than on placebo in both trials — in TRIUMPH-3, 13.5% on the 12 mg arm against 4.8% on placebo.

Lilly said detailed results from both trials will be presented at future medical meetings and published in peer-reviewed journals. Until that happens, these are company-reported topline figures.